Currency substitution monetary model in Algeria -An empirical analysis-

Abstract

The article attempts to investigate the estimation of Equilibrium exchange rate in Algeria during period (1995-2020), using the Currency substitution Monetary Model, by applied the Bounds Test of ARDL co-integration model, The Unit Root Testing (ADF) conceded the integration of the variables at (0) order and (1), We estimate the selected model an ARDL(1,0,1,3) and it long-run; short-term relationships, The results shows the long-run relationships with Exchange rate is adjusted towards the equilibrium within four (4) years. In short-term there are Current and Future effect of monetary supply difference gap, and no effect by GDP gap on the exchange rate, also; the result shows the superiority of the monetary effect against the reel effect on the equilibrium exchange rate in Algeria.